Gartner has been publishing “hype cycle” diagrams for nearly 15 years, covering all kinds of technologies. I am always interested in the one on emerging technologies because I tend to be a bit on the painful leading edge at times.
The hype cycle has five phases and reflects exuberant enthusiasm for, as well as disillusionment in, new technology:
- “Technology Trigger“ The first phase of the cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
- “Peak of Inflated Expectations“ In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
- “Trough of Disillusionment“ Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
- “Slope of Enlightenment“ Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
- “Plateau of Productivity“ A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
(Thank you, Wikipedia!)
The goodies that are now on the up-swinging “Slope of Enlightenment” are:
- Speech Recognition – I’m still “training” my speech recognition program to type what I say. Sometimes the recognition program works perfectly and sometimes it speaks a foreign language. I’ve given up on the automated receptionists that can’t seem to handle a simple “yes” or “no!”
- SOA – I would put “service oriented architecture” onto the plateau of productivity. There are so many applications now sold as “software as a service (SaaS)” that it’s becoming common place.
- Web 2.0, Corporate Blogging and Wikis are moving pretty quickly into mainstream adoption. You think?
- The Tablet PC is supposed to go mainstream in 2 to 5 years, according to Gartner, but an iTablet from Apple might move that ahead pretty fast! (I really, really, really want one!!)
- RFID is at the bottom of the pit in the Trough of Disillusionment and even Wal-Mart hasn’t been able to push it up the hill.
Lots of wishful thinking here, let’s hope some of these technologies move a little faster!
